everythings coming up milhouse


Divisional Round Picks

Well, that was a rough week. While I did make money last weekend and backed it up with a win on LSU on Monday night, I went 0-4 on my picks. So read my analysis with a pile of salt. Not a grain. A big ole pile.

Season: 120-129-11

Seattle (+ 8) at Green Bay: Although the Seahawks weren’t really impressive last week, they did win by 21 points. Then you have the well-rested Pack. Everyone talks about the Packers’ great home field advantage there at Lambeau Field. Meanwhile, the last few times the Packers have played in big games and bad weather, they’ve played like shit (at Chicago in Week 16, against the Falcons in the playoffs in 2003). On the field, I like the Packers’ defense to do enough to win the game. However, I like the Seahawks to cover the spread. Green Bay 21, Seattle 17.

Jacksonville (+13.5) at New England: I really don’t understand all the Jacksonville love. Yes, once again, they had a very good November and December. Then, in their first playoff game, they played a Steeler team with half of an offensive line and no running game. They blow an 18 point fourth quarter lead and only win because David Garrard run 32 yards on a quarterback draw on a pivotal 4th and 2. This is the scary Jags team that is supposed to be the biggest threat to New England? I see the Jags running the ball well, scoring some points, but not having the defense to stay with a focused, rested Patriot team. New England 35, Jacksonville 17.

San Diego (+ 8) at Indianapolis: When I first saw this line, I immediately remembered how bad the Colts offense has looked and how tough the Chargers play them, and thought that San Diego seemed like a lock. But after really analyzing the teams and players, I realize that I have to bet the Colts. Last time these teams played, the game was at San Diego. The Colts were playing without Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark. The Chargers got 2 touchdown returns on kicks. Peyton Manning threw SIX interceptions. Adam Viniateri missed two kicks, including a 26-yard field goal at the end. And the Chargers STILL only won by 2. So now, with Antonio Gates out, all those guys back for the Colts, at Indianapolis–I’m supposed to take the Chargers? Plus, remember that we’re talking about Norv and Philip Rivers on the road against the defending champs in their first big game since winning the title. Yeah, I’m going with Indy. Indianapolis 30, San Diego 13.

NY Giants (+8.5) at Dallas: I am all over the Giants here. After doubting the G-Men last week and picking Tampa Bay, I realized that this team is better than I thought and has a real chance at not only toppling a banged-up Cowboys team, but perhaps going to the Super Bowl. I really think Eli is underrated. Perhaps the better phrase is ‘too heavily criticized’. Sure, he’s had some horrendous games, but remember this is only his fourth season as a NFL quarterback, and he plays under the most pressure of any player in the league, week in and week out. Not only is he the quarterback of the number one team in the number one market, but his older brother is one of the best players of all time. And with all that, he’s maturing as a player. I expect a solid game out of him against an overrated Dallas defense. But, will the Cowboys win? I think it really all depends on Terrell Owens’ injury. I don’t think he’ll miss the game, as was reported by John Clayton. This is a guy who played on a broken leg once, and played well. But if he does miss the game, or plays but is obviously hampered, I like the Giants to win straight up. If T.O. is himself, Dallas will pull it out. I’ll go with my gut, which is ample. NY Giants 27, Dallas 24.

Because I often just surf the net at work rather than do actual work, I went to imdb.com today and found that its Sarah Shahi’s birthday today. The big 2-8. So as a present to Sarah, I have decided to feature her on the favorite blog of…….at least 3 or 4 people. See ya later, haters.



walking you through a wonderful weekend of gambling

I quit betting on football a few years ago. All though college, I bet money I didn’t have and ended up having to call home for extra cash because of “an extra book for class” or because I “needed it”. Most of the time, it was because one of my locks of the week ended up getting…….I don’t know…..unlocked.

After college, I continued betting. I studied the lines like it was my career. (Actually, since I was a freelance writer for a newspaper, covering high shcool sports for 50 dollars an assignment, betting WAS my career.) Inevitably, I was down somewhere between 1000 and 2000 at the end of the year. Since I was making about 20,000 a year, this was quite steep.

So a few years ago, I decided to quit betting on football outside of the playoffs and Super Bowl. And its worked out well. I get the extra edge I used to get from gambling from fantasy football. And I save money. Everyone wins. Except my bookie.

But this year, like the previous two, I resume betting on football on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s how the 2008 start went.

Washington at Seattle: So I start off with 25 bucks on Washington plus 3, and 75 on the 1st half under, which is 19. As I’m watching the game, it becomes obvious Washington’s offense can’t do a thing. Todd Collins is under constant pressure, and even when he’s able to get a good throw off, his receivers are dropping them. While Seattle’s offense isn’t exactly tearing it up, it seems apparent they won’t have to score much to win this game. At the half, its 10-0 Seahawks and I’m already up 75. I check the site and see that the 2nd half spread is a pick em. After watching that Redskin offense in the first half, I figure they’d be lucky to score, let alone outscore Seattle in the final thirty minutes. I lay 100 on Seattle in the 2nd half. So, because I am bad at gambling, the Redskins score two touchdowns in the third quarter and then immediately get the ball again because Seattle forgets they have to field kicks in football. But apparently Shaun Suisham didn’t get the memo that Sean Taylor died, because he shanks a 30-yard field goal. From there on, the Seahawks score 22 points, including 2 interception returns for touchdowns and the Seahawks win 35-14. It was nice of them to honor Taylor’s memory by beating Washington by 21. As for me, I’m up 147.50 after one game. Sweet.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: I liked Pittsburgh plus 2 and a half here, so I put 50 on it and leave it at that. I know everyone and their mother was loving the Jags, but I thought it would be difficult for Jacksonville to win at Pittsburgh twice in a four-week span. And it was difficult. Great comeback by Pittsburgh, and an equally great late drive by the Jags and David Garrard, who’s 30-yard scramble on 4th-and-2 set up the game winning field goal. But I covered the spread, and that is all that matters. Even Mike Tomlin will tell you that. For the day, I’m up 197.50. Awesome.

NY Giants at Tampa Bay: Again I go against the grain. Everyone seems to feel the Giants are hot and Tampa is not. I go with the theory that Jon Gruden has had three weeks to prepare for the Giants and the Bucs are well-rested, and therefore I’m laying the points for a small 25 bucks. I am also putting another 25 on the first half under of 20.5. The Bucs go down the field late in the first quarter for an early 7-0 lead, and both bets look great. This is the last time I would be happy on this Sunday.

The Giants, from that point on, completely dominate Tampa Bay. Jeff Garcia is under constant pressure, and when he’s not, he’s throwing horrible passes. Its the worst he’s looked since his Detroit days. Meanwhile, Eli Manning is carving up the Bucs, and it has become apparent that he is unstoppable on the road. Maybe the Giants should just play all their games on the road. Just donate their 8 home games to their opponents. Eli would probably be MVP. Anyway, I lose both bets and I’m now at +142.50.

Tennessee at San Diego: Oh, fuck this game. Fuck it right in the ear. I start off with a 50 spot on the Titans plus 10. I have no faith in Norv or Philip Rivers, so I also put 25 on the Tennessee money line, at +400. (For those not familiar with gambling, this means I take the Titans–with odds–to win the game straight up. So if I lose, I drop 25; if I were to win, I get 100 bucks.) The first half is exactly how I expected–and hoped–it would go. The Titans are playing their usual boring as shit ball, just running it and playing field position. They have been able to shut down LT, and I have no doubt that Rivers will choke on his own cock in the 2nd half. Up 6-0 at the half, I see that the Titans are +9 for the second half. Even though the Chargers are a second half team, this seems like a lock.

Well, there were a few things I didn’t know. First off, Rod Bironas would miss a 30-yard field goal on the Titans’ only scoring chance of the second half. Second, the Titans’ defensive backs are fucking atrocious. With Antonio Gates out, you’d think they could stop the Chargers on 3rd-and-10 or more; you’d think wrong. Time and time again, the Charger receviers were wide open on 3rd and long plays, and eventually the Tennessee defense just didn’t have it anymore. Oh, and also, Vince Young is fucking horrible. You know how many times he tucked it and ran yesterday? Zero. None. Apparently, he thought his rocket arm and receiving corps of Justin Gage and Ben Troupe would be enough. Fuck, Vince. Run the fucking ball. And finally, the Chargers might be the biggest team of douchebags in the entire league. Philip Rivers is a whining little bitch who complains about fucking EVERYTHING. Every time they show him he’s crying to the refs or to his teammates or coaches. Just shut the fuck up and play. Its your second year in the league as a starter, douche. But its not just him. The whole Charger defense acts like they won the lottery every time they make a play. I love celebrations and hate the NFL for trying to cut down on players’ expressing themselves, but if Shawne Merriman does that stupid ass dance one more time, I’m going to kill myself. And whats up with Shaun Phillips and Luis Castillo doing the ‘kick your leg’ thing after every play? Jesus, go back to the huddle, fucksticks.

Honestly, if I had to make a list of the biggest asswipes in the NFL, I think Rivers and Merriman would definitely be in the top 10. Rodney Harrison is definitely at the top. So is Roy Williams of the Cowboys. Learn how to not horse collar, you fucking faggot. Olin Kruetz is a major shithead. Oh, and watch the Packers sometime. Focus on Nick Barnett, and how often he jumps late into piles and just acts like a total asswipe. Well, I’ve gone off on a tangent here. Sorry.

Anyway, I lose all my Sunday bets and end up at +32.50 for the weekend. Fuck the Chargers.



HHY WILD card round picks

Season: 120-125-11

Seattle (-4) vs. Washington: I really hate this game. Part of me wants to take Seattle because they are so tough at home, they’re rested, and there is no way I should bet on Todd Collins on the road in the postseason. On the other hand, the Redskins might be the hottest team in the NFL and have the whole Sean Taylor thing going on. In the end, I’ll take the cowards way out: choose Seattle to win the game but not cover the spread. I think Hassellbeck will do just enough to win this game despite having no help from the running game. Seattle 20, Washington 17.

Jacksonville (Pk) vs. Pittsburgh: It scares me that everyone is so sure of next week’s great New England-Jacksonville matchup. I know the Jags are one of the best teams in the league and are “made for January football”, but this is still the Steelers at home in the postseason. The injury to Willie Parker is not quite as huge in this game, I think, because the Jags stop the run really well and the Steelers would have used the pass anyway. Big Ben is having a terrific year, and I think he leads the Steelers to a rare surprising home win. Pittsburgh 24, Jacksonville 20.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. NY Giants: I was really close to taking the Giants here. Eli looked awesome last week and always plays better on the road. Plaxico is running as well as he did in Week 1. Brandon Jacobs is strong. The Giants’ pass rush is fantastic. But Jon Gruden has been resting his regulars and preparing for the Giants for three weeks. Gruden against Tom Coughlin? Please. I also love Jeff Garcia and Earnest Graham. Finally, I think this may be the first time in NFL history that a team has a letdown for its first playoff game after a Week 17 battle. Tampa Bay 27, NY Giants 13.

San Diego (-9.5) vs Tennessee: This game makes me nauseus. If you have read my NFL reviews of each week, you know my disdain for the Titans. They are so fucking boring its ridiculous. But, I do get to watch LT here. As much as I hate to watch the Titans, I love Jeff Fisher and I think they are a great bet this week. The Titans are strong against the run, and if they can shut down LT and make Philip Rivers beat them, they have a chance to pull a huge upset. Plus, the Chargers are coached by Norv. However, I think this will be that late Sunday game that makes you sleepy, with very low scoring and some bad, bad quarterback play. San Diego 16, Tennessee 13.



HHY picks, week 17
December 27, 2007, 10:46 am
Filed under: NFL picks, bad at gambling, hardawayhatesyou, sports

Since this week’s games is a complete pile of shit, I’m really glad I’ll be extending the picks section to the playoffs. 

Season: 113-116-11

New England (-14.5) over NY Giants
San Francisco (+11.5) over Cleveland
Miami (+3) over Cincinnati
Seattle (+2) over Atlanta
Green Bay (-3) over Detroit
Buffalo (+7.5) over Philadelphia
Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
Houston (-6.5) over Jacksonville
New Orleans (-3) over Chicago
Washington (- 8) over Dallas
Kansas City (+6.5) over NY Jets
Minnesota (-3) over Denver
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Baltimore
San Diego (- 8) over Oakland
St. Louis (+6) over Arizona
Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis



HHY picks
December 19, 2007, 11:30 am
Filed under: NFL picks, bad at gambling, hardawayhatesyou, nfl

I can’t seem to have that one big week to get me back over .500. Only two weeks left to play. Lets see how it goes in Week 16.

Season: 105-107-11

Pittsburgh (-7.5) over St. Louis
Dallas (-10.5) over Carolina
Kansas City (+4.5) over Detroit
Oakland (+13) over Jacksonville
Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans
Cleveland (-3) over Cincinnati
Indianapolis (-7.5) over Houston
Buffalo (+3) over NY Giants
Chicago (+9) over Green Bay
Tampa Bay (-6.5) over San Francisco
Arizona (-10) over Atlanta
New England (-22.5) over Miami
NY Jets (+9) over Tennessee
Seattle (-7) over Baltimore
Washington (+6.5) over Minnesota
Denver (+9) over San Diego



HHY Week 15 picks
December 12, 2007, 1:21 pm
Filed under: NFL picks, bad at gambling, hardawayhatesyou

Season: 98-99-11

Denver (Pk) over Houston
Tennessee (-4) over Kansas City
Cincinnati (- 8) over San Francisco
Tampa Bay (-13.5) over Atlanta
Seattle (-7.5) over Carolina
Green Bay (-10) over St. Louis
Baltimore (-3.5) over Miami
New England (-23.5) over NY Jets
Arizona (+3.5) over New Orleans
Jacksonville (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis (-10.5) over Oakland
San Diego (-10) over Detroit
Philadelphia (+10.5) over Dallas
NY Giants (-4.5) over Washington
Chicago (+10) over Minnesota



HHY Week 14 picks
December 6, 2007, 11:03 am
Filed under: NFL picks, bad at gambling, hardawayhatesyou

I’ve had three straight poor weeks, dipping me below .500 for the first time.

Season: 89-92-11

Chicago (+3) over Washington
Dallas (-10.5) over Detroit
Jacksonville (-10.5) over Carolina
San Diego (pk) over Tennessee
Green Bay (-10) over Oakland
NY Giants (+3) over Philadelphia
Cincinnati (-6) over St. Louis
Tampa Bay (-3) over Houston
Buffalo (-7) over Miami
Minnesota (-7) over San Francisco
Arizona (+6.5) over Seattle
Cleveland (-3.5) over NY Jets
Kansas City (+6.5) over Denver
Pittsburgh (+13) over New England
Indianapolis (-9.5) over Baltimore
Atlanta (+5) over New Orleans



hhy’s week 13 picks
November 29, 2007, 10:56 am
Filed under: NFL picks, afc, bad at gambling, nfc, nfl

I’m just holding on to .500 after a tough 6-10 week.

Season: 83-82-11

Dallas (-6.5) over Green Bay
Kansas City (+3) over San Diego
San Francisco (+3) over Carolina
Miami (-2) over NY Jets
Washington (-5) over Buffalo
Atlanta (+4) over St. Louis
Houston (+3.5) over Tennessee
Philadelphia (-3) over Seattle
Minnesota (-3) over Detroit
Jacksonville (+7) over Indianapolis
Oakland (+3) over Denver
Cleveland (+1) over Arizona
Tampa Bay (+3) over New Orleans
NY Giants (-1) over Chicago
Cincinnati (+8.5) over Pittsburgh
New England (-20) over Baltimore

There might be a couple pushes this week; a lot of 3-5 point spreads.



Week 12 picks for HHY
November 20, 2007, 11:14 am
Filed under: NFL picks, Yeah I'm laying the 22 points, bad at gambling, hardawayhatesyou

Season: 77-72-11

Green Bay (-3) over Detroit
Dallas (-14) over NY Jets
Atlanta (+12) over Indianapolis
Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville
Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland
NY Giants (-7.5) over Minnesota
Carolina (+3) over New Orleans
Kansas City (-5.5) over Oakland
Seattle (-3) over St. Louis
Tennessee (-4) over Cincinnati
Tampa Bay (-3) over Washington
Arizona (-10.5) over San Francisco
Chicago (-2) over Denver
Baltimore (+9.5) over San Diego
New England (-22) over Philadelphia
Miami (+16) over Pittsburgh



HHY’s Week 11 picks
November 14, 2007, 1:51 pm
Filed under: NFL picks, bad at gambling, football, hardawayhatesyou

I’m putting these up a day early since I’ll be away from a computer for most of the remainder of the week. However, Friday’s hot chick will be put up tomorrow.

After two straight sub-.500 weeks, I’m looking to make mad moves this week. Nothing less than 10 covers.

Season: 69-65-10

Arizona (+3) over Cincinnati
Green Bay (-9.5) over Carolina
Cleveland (-2.5) over Baltimore
Indianapolis (-14.5) over Kansas City
Philadelphia (-10) over Miami
New Orleans (pk) over Houston
Oakland (+5.5) over Minnesota
San Diego (+3) over Jacksonville
Tampa Bay (-3) over Atlanta
Detroit (+3) over NY Giants
Pittsburgh (-9.5) over NY Jets
Washington (+11.5) over Dallas
St. Louis (-2.5) over San Francisco
Seattle (-6) over Chicago
New England (-15.5) over Buffalo
Tennessee (+2.5) over Denver